ICIS LAUNCHES SECOND EUROPEAN PRICE FORECASTING RE

29/03/2007


LONDON, March 29 /PRNewswire/ --

- Monthly Service Combines Advanced Analytics and Market
Sentiment Index to Provide Industry Players With Precision Forecasts


In response to demand from major market players in the petrochemical
industry, ICIS, the world's leading information provider to the chemical and
oil industry, this week announced the launch of the second ICIS forecasting
European market report covering the Propylene to Polypropylene chain.


ICIS forecasting is an innovative monthly price forecasting service that
forecasts prices of the major petrochemical products. ICIS forecasting
incorporates the unique ICIS Market Sentiment Index, the first of its kind
for the petrochemical markets.


"Petrochemical markets are increasingly volatile, buffeted by new players
entering the feedstock market, turbulent pricing and variable supply/demand
dynamics," said Allison Farone, ICIS Vvice Ppresident - Americas. "Our
clients have been asking for a more precise forecasting product that can help
them better navigate this market and determine where short-term prices are
going. ICIS forecasting is the first forecasting product that fills the
market need for this level of precision."


A survey by ICIS highlighted that chemical industry professionals state
that existing forecasting reports by competitors are not transparent with
their methodology (e.g., what drivers they are using, how their model works,
how often it is updated). The survey goes on to show that this lack of
clarity has resulted in dissatisfaction among some of their current
subscribers. The competing information providers often forecast on a
quarterly basis, which does not support short-term decision making, while
ICIS forecasting is provided on a monthly basis, in a simple-to-read two-page
format transmitted electronically to subscribers.


Continuing volatility of petrochemical prices throughout the past 18
months has exposed the weakness in current forecasting methodologies and
highlighted the need for a scientific rather than experiential approach to
forecasting. Scientific models create consistency, precision and eliminate
reliance on the judgment of key individuals.


ICIS forecasting is an improved approach, because it blends three
advanced modeling techniques:


ICIS Market Sentiment Index:


A breakthrough in price forecasting, the innovative ICIS Market Sentiment
Index identifies events (e.g., plant closings, product shortages) previously
reported by ICIS that impact the behavior of market participants (in terms of
supply, demand and price). In short, it establishes the quantitative
relationship between a combination of multiple events and market reaction to
those events.


The ICIS Market Sentiment Index quantifies the combination of
inflationary and deflationary news stories reported by ICIS and expresses
them as a number. This number is positive in months where more inflationary
than deflationary events have occurred; it is negative where the combination
of events is likely to have a deflationary impact on sentiment.


UnivariateTime Series:


Univariate Time series modeling analyses patterns in historic prices, and
is particularly useful in short-term forecasts. The ICIS forecasting analysis
is based on ICIS pricing's assessment of petrochemical prices.


Multivariate:


Multivariate pricing identifies relationships between prices and other
variables, including consumer and industrial indicators and trade and price
data. This model enables ICIS not only to forecast but to give explanations
of price movements, through driver evolution graphs which show the
progression of the key price drivers over recent months.


The ICIS forecasting methodology forecasts prices by incorporating the
output of the index in the forecasting model of each feedstock product. The
price generated by incorporating the ICIS Market Sentiment Index is provided
separately in the monthly report.


"The Market Sentiment Index is an early warning system for a change in
direction in the markets," Ms. Farone said. "And, in the interest of complete
transparency, ICIS forecasting publishes each month its own accuracy in
forecasting for the previous month and show the driver indices movements,"
she added.


ICIS forecasting has now launched reports for the Polystyrene,
Polyethylene, Polypropylene and Phenol-Acetone markets in the US, the
Polyethylene, Polypropylene and Para-xylene markets in Asia, and the
Polyethylene and Polypropylene markets in Europe.


ICIS forecasting is completely independent from ICIS price reporting and
is based on statistical analysis of historical assessments and textual
analysis of news files.


A free sample of an ICIS forecasting report can be obtained by going to:
http://www.icis.com/forecasting


ICIS forecasting was developed in partnership with BMG DecisionCraft, a
consulting firm that uses advanced analytical tools to help companies
increase profitability and manage risk.


Co-based in London and India, BMG DecisionCraft clients include one of
North America's largest car manufacturers, one of the United Kingdom's
largest lenders and one of Europe's leading private equity funds. Principals
in London include Mark Giles, managing director, and Dr. Stephen Price,
director. Principals in India include Dr. P.R. Shukla, co-founder of the
Ahmedabad management school, Dr. Nilotpal Chakrvarti, head of the Modeling
Laboratory at Ahmedabad (India's leading management school), and Dr. Pankaj
Chandra, head of Supply Chain Analytics at Ahmedabad.


Reed Business Information


ICIS is part of Reed Business Information (RBI), a division of Reed
Business and a member of Reed Elsevier plc (525), (UK:REL) (US:RUK)
(NL:45443) the world's leading publisher and information provider. RBI
publishes over 100 market leading publications, directories and online
services, and organises many industry conferences and awards. The RBI
portfolio includes Computer Weekly, Caterer & Hotelkeeper, Commercial Motor,
Community Care, Estates Gazette, Farmers Weekly, Flight International, New
Scientist, Travel Weekly, Totaljobs.com, Caterer.com, CWJobs, Estates Gazette
Interactive (EGi), ATI (Air Transport Intelligence), ICIS, Kellysearch,
Kompass UK, and Bankers' Almanac. For a full listing visit
http://www.reedbusiness.co.uk